Senate races to watch in the next 30 days...

and where the money is going.

Road to 270 LIVE Sunday night…

Don’t forget to mark your calendar for Sunday, October 13th at 7:00 pm ET. We will be doing a special live map to 270 with guests from battleground states and with your input live in the chat.

Here’s a look at where Elon’s support is going:

and this is why it matters:

The two most important things are time and money. Many candidates and consultants will try to sell people on how competitive their race is but if you aren’t getting high; even visits or financial support its not real. Elon is a data kind of guy — so if he doesn’t think it’s a winnable race I don’t think he is going to throw his money away. Conversely, when you see millions being spent there is something there. This chart mirrors the list the NRCC put out of some of the most competitive races. Some are incumbents like Rep. Mike Lawler in New York that our side is trying to hold and some are open seats — or challengers like Austin Theriault in Maine who is looking to beat a Democrat incumbent.

Stories I’m Reading…

President Biden promotes press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre to new top role — via Fox News

How One Polling Decision Is Leading to Two Distinct Stories of the Election — via New York Times

FL State Guardsman: What The Media Is Telling You About Helene Is Complete Bullsh*t, Politicians Don’t Have A Clue And Are Lying — via Real Clear Politics

Migrant charged in torture of Texas woman who returned home to find four armed men waiting for her — via Daily Mail

This week in 2016…

8 years ago after the St. Louis debate.

The trends matter

Each Wednesday we do the path to 270 — and tomorrow will be the latest installment (and Sunday a very special live edition at 7pm). You will notice I rarely highlight just one as evidence of something. Rather I try to look at trends, data (registration, early vote) and where outside money is being spent.